February Real Estate Market Update



On March 1st the Cromford Market Report made the bold statement that the real estate market in the Metro Phoenix area hit bottom in December saying,

“The contract ratio for all areas & types has risen above 60. This means we are officially in a hot market again. You should therefore anticipate house price rises over the coming months, no matter what you read in the media, which tends to base their reports and projections on housing data that is one to several months out of date, such as the S&P Case-Shiller® Home Price Index®. The opportunity to buy at the bottom of the correction occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022. Congratulations if you bought when everyone else was fearful. That was good market timing.”


Let’s review some of the reasons the Cromford Report may be saying we have passed the bottom of the market:

While prices in Gilbert have dropped significantly since the peak of the market in the summer of 2022, February was the first month since June where the average sales price did not fall. 


Active Listing counts have been shrinking since October and are at similar levels to the last "normal" market we had back in 2019. 


More homes in Gilbert were successfully sold in February, with the highest Listing Success Rate we've seen since June of last year. In February 75% of homes in Gilbert were successfully sold compared to just 62% in December.


List Price Per Square Foot in Gilbert has been steady so far this year and is right on par with what we saw in the beginning of last year, not less as you might expect. 


Sellers in Gilbert are now getting an average of 97.7% of asking price. This is down from 101.5% in February of 2022 but an increase over what we saw in January. 


This is just one month of data and it doesn't prove a trend or give us the ability to predict what we'll see over the next few months, but there are plenty of signs that the free fall in home prices in Gilbert may be coming to an end.